86 Muslim Constituencies
Normal person Twitter was recently sent into scare mode after a Muslim political scientist made a bold claim that if Muslims were to collectivise they could decisively shift a parliamentary seat (or 86).
Of course, this is cause for alarm. The British public have long since departed from the idea of voting on religious grounds, we vote according to personal values and who best represents them. Now many Brits are very religious, but this is pretty low down on their list of values when it comes to voting. So a Muslim block vote is going to start raising eyebrows.
There is a caveat in his tweet, which is hardly surprising, even Muslims are capable of voting of their own free will and not by religious diktat. So when he caveats by saying it would take a huge effort among the Muslim community, how much of an effort would it actually need?
So I thought I would also have a look to see if his claims are backed up by the stats.
Luckily, we've recently had the latest census results from 2021, so using these stats along with the last general election results of 2019, I shall have a look and see what pops its head above the parapet.
Of course, there's always the caveats
We've had a lot of immigration since 2021
Lots of deaths/coming of age etc
Not all Muslims put their religion above everything else. In fact, many Muslims cant even be bothered to vote.
Apsana Begum (Labour Muslim) sits in one of Labours safest seats, her constituency (Poplar and Limehouse) is almost 40% Muslim, just under 65,000 people. Yet just under 39,000 people voted for her. and a lot of them would have been non-Muslim Labour voters. Likewise with Slough, an electorate including 46,000 Muslims has MP Tan Dhesi winning the seat with 29,429 votes.
So yeah, you can identify seats, but to actually gain any meaningful influence, or indeed stand an independent that can actually win a seat for what would be a Party of Islam, you have to take too many variables into account for any meaningful study.
There are other caveats I've taken into account, such as low turnout which can and does have a huge effect.
There are also many areas with a large Muslim population which are not included here. Somewhere you do have to draw a line. For example, Stoke-on-Trent central appears here, but Stoke North or Stoke South do not, indeed, around 20 constituencies are borderline. I've broken this down into 3 simple groups.
1. If all Muslims voted for a Party of Islam, they could take the seat. But this is taking into account that all other voting would run along the same lines as the 2019 general election.
2. If Muslims were able to block vote, they could possibly take the seat, but again, all other voting would remain on similar lines. But not likely for a majority vote.
3. Wildcard, these seats have a very high Muslim population, and could have a massive influence in the way their MP votes, but its highly unlikely they could take the seat. This group also includes seats with a high Hindu population for example.
(MPs listed are elected officials at the time of the 2019 General Election)
1.
Barking [Margret Hodge]
Bethnal Green & Bow [Rushanara Ali]
Birmingham Hall Green [Tahir Ali]
Birmingham Hodge Hill [Liam Byrne]
Birmingham Ladywood [Shabana Mahmoud]
Birmingham Perry Barr [Khalid Mahmoud]
Birmingham Yardley [Jihadi Jess]
Blackburn [Kate Hollern]
Bradford East [Imran Hussein]
Bradford West [Naz Shah]
Derby South [Margaret Beckett]
Dewsbury [Mark Eastwood]
East Ham [Stephen Timms]
Edmonton [Kate Osamor]
Enfield North [Feryal Clark]
Feltham & Heston [Seema Malhotra]
Hayes & Harlington [John Mcdonnell]
Ilford North [Wes Streeting] (Expect to see Streeting appeasing Muslims in the coming months)
Ilford South [Sam Tarry]
Leicester South [Jonathan Ashworth]
Luton North [Sarah Owen]
Luton South [Gavin Shuker]
Manchester Gorton [Afzal Khan]
Oldham East & Saddleworth [Debbie Abrahams]
Oldham West & Royton [Jim McMahon]
Pendle [Andrew Stephenson]
Peterborough [Paul Bristow]
Poplar & Limehouse [Apsana Begum]
Preston [Mark Hendrick]
Rochdale [Tony Lloyd]
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough [Gill Furniss]
Slough [ Tan Dhesi]
Uxbridge & South Ruislip [ Steve Tuckwell]
Walsall South [Valerie Vaz]
Warley [ John Spellar]
West Ham [Lyn Brown]
Westminster North [Karen Buck]
2.
Batley & Spen
Blackley & Broughton
Bolton North East
Bolton South East
Bradford South
Brent Central
Brent North
Bristol West
Croydon North
Dagenham & Rainham
Ealing North
Ealing Southall
Halifax
Harrow West
Hendon
Holborn & St Pancras
Leicester East [Not likely due to large Hindu population, but not impossible, this is the constituency that voted for Claudia Webbe after all]
Leyton & Wanstead
Manchester Central
Newcastle Upon Tyne Central
Nottingham East
Rotherham
Sheffield South East
Sheffield
Walthamstowe
Wycombe
3.
Brentford & Isleworth
Burnley
Camberwell & Peckham
Cardiff Central
Cities of London & Westminster
Nottingham South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Tottenham (expect Lammy to be rowing back on his support for the Zionists in the coming months)
So, I've managed to locate 71, some more concerning than others. Obviously this is not 86, but if you include the ones I have identified yet dismissed because of other factors, it would be 86.
So to sum up. Being able to effect 86 seats is a hell of a reach. If a populace were to get wind of the idea that people are being encouraged to vote along religious lines, I would guess a lot would reject this outright.
And of course, as I have already pointed out, a lot of Muslims don't bother to vote at all, how they would react to voting for a party of Islam is anyone's guess, but having checked all constituencies, there is very little reason to think they would behave any differently to any other group of people, which is they would act like an individual.
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